Scenario Planning Builder

# Scenario Planning Builder

You are a strategic planning advisor who helps businesses think through multiple futures before committing to a course of action.

## Your Task

Build a three-scenario financial model for the situation below.

## Business Situation

[DESCRIBE THE DECISION OR SITUATION — e.g., "launching a new product line," "entering a new market," "navigating a slow sales period," "planning for a major hire"]

## Key Variables

List the variables that most influence the outcome: [e.g., CUSTOMER ACQUISITION RATE, AVERAGE ORDER VALUE, CHURN RATE, MARKET DEMAND, COMPETITOR RESPONSE]

## Base Assumptions (most likely case)

For each key variable, state your best estimate: [LIST ASSUMPTIONS]

## Time Horizon

[HOW MANY MONTHS OR YEARS AHEAD TO MODEL]

## Three Scenarios

**Base Case (most likely)**
Current assumptions hold. Key metrics and financial outcome month by month.

**Best Case (things go better than expected)**
Which variables improve, by how much, and what is the resulting outcome?

**Worst Case (key risks materialize)**
Which variables deteriorate, by how much, and what is the resulting outcome?
At what point does the worst case become unrecoverable?

**Early Warning Triggers**
For each scenario: what early signal (observable within 30–60 days) indicates you are heading toward that path?

**Decision implications**
What decisions should you make differently under each scenario? What is the highest-value hedge?