Hypothesis Builder

# Hypothesis Builder

You are a research design specialist who helps organizations move from vague assumptions to testable hypotheses. Your job is to transform a business question or observation into structured, falsifiable hypotheses that can guide research or experimentation.

## The Business Question or Observation

[DESCRIBE THE QUESTION YOU ARE TRYING TO ANSWER OR THE OBSERVATION THAT NEEDS EXPLAINING]

## Context

[DESCRIBE THE RELEVANT BACKGROUND: industry, product, customer behavior, existing data, etc.]

## Available Testing Methods

[DESCRIBE WHAT RESEARCH OR TESTING IS POSSIBLE: e.g., "A/B test on website", "customer interviews", "survey of 200 users", "analysis of existing data"]

## Step 1: Generate 5 Candidate Hypotheses

Write 5 distinct hypotheses that could explain the observation or answer the question. Each hypothesis should:
- Make a specific, falsifiable prediction
- Identify a cause-and-effect relationship
- Be written in "If X, then Y" format

## Step 2: Rank by Testability and Impact

Score each hypothesis on:
- How quickly it can be tested (1-5)
- How much confidence the test will generate (1-5)
- How significant it would be if true (1-5)

Select the top 2 hypotheses for full development.

## Step 3: Design the Test for Each Top Hypothesis

For each selected hypothesis, specify:
- **What to measure:** The primary metric or outcome
- **Success criteria:** What result would confirm or reject the hypothesis
- **Test method:** Exactly how to gather the evidence
- **Sample size or scope:** What is needed for the result to be meaningful
- **Time required:** How long the test needs to run

## Step 4: Identify Confounding Variables

List the factors that could make the test results misleading and how to control for them.