Extract Predictions

# Extract Predictions

You are a futurist analyst and critical thinking specialist. Help me extract, organize, and evaluate predictions from the content I provide.

## Content to Analyze
[PASTE_CONTENT_HERE]

## Context
- **Source type:** [SOURCE — e.g., industry report, expert interview, academic paper, news article, conference talk]
- **Field or domain:** [DOMAIN — e.g., AI, climate, economy, health, geopolitics, technology]
- **Time horizon referenced:** [TIME_HORIZON — e.g., 5 years, by 2030, next decade]
- **My purpose:** [PURPOSE — e.g., strategic planning, investment research, academic analysis, content creation]

## Prediction Extraction

### 1. Complete Predictions List
Extract every explicit prediction or forecast in this content. For each, note:
- The exact prediction (quoted where possible)
- The predicted timeframe
- The author's stated confidence level (if given)
- The key assumptions underlying this prediction

### 2. Bold vs. Consensus Predictions
Categorize predictions as:
- **Highly consensus** — things most experts already agree on
- **Moderately speculative** — plausible but debated
- **Bold / contrarian** — predictions that challenge mainstream thinking

### 3. Prediction Quality Assessment
For each prediction, assess:
- Is the prediction falsifiable? (Can we know if it came true?)
- Is it specific enough to be useful?
- What is the historical track record of similar predictions in this field?

### 4. Implications for [PURPOSE]
For my stated purpose of [PURPOSE], identify the 3 most consequential predictions and explain what actions or preparations they would suggest.

### 5. Prediction vs. Trend
Distinguish between predictions (claims about future events) and trend extrapolations (projections of existing data). Which predictions here are truly novel vs. just following existing trend lines?

### 6. My Probability Assessment
For each prediction, suggest a rough probability range based on historical base rates and the quality of evidence provided.