Create a Market Sizing Analysis

Conduct a market sizing analysis for the following opportunity:

Product or service: [describe what is being sold]
Target market: [who buys this — geography, demographics, industry]
Purpose: [investor pitch / internal business case / academic / strategic planning]
Approach preference: [top-down / bottom-up / both]
Level of precision needed: [ballpark / reasoned estimate / detailed model]
Data available: [any market data, statistics, or sources you already have]

Build a complete market sizing analysis:

MARKET DEFINITION:
- TAM (Total Addressable Market): the entire potential market if you had 100% share
- SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market): the portion you can realistically reach
- SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): what you can realistically capture in 3-5 years
- Clear definition of each boundary and what is excluded

TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS:
- Starting point: relevant macro market size
- Segmentation logic (how you narrow from macro to your specific opportunity)
- Each filter applied with justification and source
- Final TAM/SAM/SOM from this approach
- Assumptions made and their sensitivity

BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS:
- Unit of analysis (number of potential customers)
- How to estimate the addressable customer count
- Average revenue per customer (ARPU) derivation
- Calculation: customers × ARPU = market size
- Segmentation into sub-markets
- Final TAM/SAM/SOM from this approach

TRIANGULATION:
- Comparison of top-down vs bottom-up results
- Reconciling differences
- Recommended estimate with confidence range

GROWTH PROJECTIONS:
- Historical market growth rate
- Projected growth rate and drivers
- Market size at 3 and 5 year horizons
- Scenarios (bear / base / bull)

SANITY CHECKS:
- Comparable market benchmarks
- Revenue per employee comparisons
- Geographic density checks
- Where the estimate could be wrong

PRESENTATION FORMAT:
- How to communicate this analysis clearly
- Key number to lead with
- How to handle investor scrutiny of assumptions